Will an open-weights model score ≥ 85.0% on SWE-bench Verified before Jan 1, 2027?

Verified by official Stanford / Princeton SWE-bench leaderboard evaluation

YES Mark Price58.5¢ (58.5%)

NO Mark Price41.5¢ (41.5%)

24h CLOB Volume3.18M PVC

Book Liquidity4.10M PVC

IMPLIED PROBABILITY TRAJECTORY (YES CONTRACT)

58.5%5850 bps · 2026-11-01

CLOB Orderbook Depth (YES)

Spread: 40 bps

ASKS (YES)SIZE (PVC)

MID MARK58.5¢

BIDS (YES)SIZE (PVC)

Recent Matched Executions

SHA-256 ATTESTED

BUY YES @ 58.5¢

desk_quant_04 · 8f434346…327aa4

1,250.00 PVC

2,136.75 sh

BUY NO @ 41.5¢

citadel_sim_09 · 2c26b46b…66e7ae

640.00 PVC

1,542.17 sh

BUY YES @ 58.1¢

wintermute_demo · 4b227777…dabf8a

2,500.00 PVC

4,299.23 sh

DETERMINISTIC ORACLE & ADJUDICATION RULES

Primary Resolution SourceOfficial SWE-bench Verified Leaderboard (swebench.com)

Oracle Attestation QuorumPryvantal ML Benchmark Attestation Node

Resolves YES if any publicly downloadable open-weights model achieves ≥ 85.0% resolved rate on the SWE-bench Verified 500-instance split under standard unassisted harness rules.

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Your Active Positions (1)

YES · 781.25 sharesEntry 55.3¢

Invested: 475.00 PVCMark: 58.5¢